兰新高铁甘青段路基冻胀自动监测及分析研究

为查明兰新高铁甘青段路基冻胀变形原因和影响因素,提出相应的冻胀处理措施,将路基冻胀变形控制在允许范围之内,采用自动监测系统,对路肩以下5 m范围内路基的冻结深度、水分、冻胀变形等进行监测,并对监测结果进行统计分析和深入研究。研究结果表明:路基冻结深度的发展主要受气温的影响,基床表层以下填料含水量随着冻结深度增加缓慢增加;基床表层及基床底层上部1.0 m范围冻胀量占总冻胀量的80%以上;低路堤地段冻胀最严重。为减少路基冻胀量,设计及施工时应采用全冻结深度防冻胀方案,以填料防冻胀为主,辅以防水、疏水和隔热等综合措施;低路堤地段防冻胀措施应适当加强。     

渔船操纵性指数K、T的统计分析

船舶操纵性指数是描述船舶操纵性能的重要指标。现对11条渔船根据试验结果得到的K、T指数进行统计分析，得到了各种参数的影响规模，在此基础上，给出渔船操纵性能指数的估算公式。     

汽车发动机诊断的统计模拟方法

运用统计模拟的方法，提取发动机信号的故障特征，并给出这些特征值的置信区间，实现了故障的定量诊断。在柴油机供油系统和汽车发动机中的诊断实践充分证明了该方法的优越性。     

统计试验法在汽车零部件三维尺寸及公差设计中的应用

通过对汽车零部件设计中所采用的几种尺寸及公差设计方法的对比分析，系统地介绍了一种应用统计试验法进行尺寸及公差设计的新方法。并且探讨了采用该方法进行计算机模拟、解决三维尺寸及公差设计问题的实现方法。在尺寸及公差设计中，该方法简单、易行，而且可以获得高的计算精度。以汽车操纵杆为例，详细地说明了应用该方法进行三维尺寸及公差分析的过程，从而证明了该方法的有效性和实用性。     

On the variance of recurrent traffic flow for statistical traffic assignment

This paper generalizes and extends classical traffic assignment models to characterize the statistical features of Origin-Destination (O-D) demands, link/path flow and link/path costs, all of which vary from day to day. The generalized statistical traffic assignment (GESTA) model has a clear multi-level variance structure. Flow variance is analytically decomposed into three sources, O-D demands, route choices and measurement errors. Consequently, optimal decisions on roadway design, maintenance, operations and planning can be made using estimated probability distributions of link/path flow and system performance. The statistical equilibrium in GESTA is mathematically defined. Its multi-level statistical structure well fits large-scale data mining techniques. The embedded route choice model is consistent with the settings of O-D demands considering link costs that vary from day to day. We propose a Method of Successive Averages (MSA) based solution algorithm to solve for GESTA. Its convergence and computational complexity are analyzed. Three example networks including a large-scale network are solved to provide insights for decision making and to demonstrate computational efficiency.     

圈层外推法在交通影响分析中的应用

针对目前交通影响分析实际项目缺乏路段阻抗矩阵这一现实情况,提出了一种基于路段饱和度的交通量分配方法--圈层外推法.由于路段饱和度既与阻抗之间存在显著的相关性,又较易通过观测获得,因此不仅具有很强的理论说服力,而且还具有广泛的实用价值.此外,结合数据结构知识,提出了基于VB的实现算法,并通过实例证明其正确性.     

基于统计能量法的船舶板架结构简化建模方法研究

统计能量法是解决复杂结构高频动力学问题的主要方法之一,限于其分析特性,过于细致化的建模会引发其计算量大、计算精度低等问题。针对典型的船体板架结构,提出基于统计能量法的船体板架结构简化建模方法,并结合数值计算加以验证。根据实际需求,提出简化建模的等效原则,给出多平板的简化建模方法;通过研究给出周期加筋板的简化建模方法;提出一种双层底结构的简化建模方法,并进行误差分析。     

一种高效的舰船磁性定位方法

为有效解决现有磁性定位方法定位精度不高的问题,提出了基于磁偶极子阵列模型的磁定位方法.为求解模型参数,根据磁场测量数据建立了定位参数反演模型.针对实际舰船磁性检测中所得磁场信息的局部性而引起反演模型病态不适定问题,应用Tikhonov正则化方法优化求解模型参数.船模实验证明,该方法对船模进行定位计算,定位精度高,结果稳...     

Modeling the relationships among urban passenger travel carbon dioxide emissions,transportation demand and supply,population density,and proxy policy variables

To support the development of policies that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by encouraging reduced travel and increased use of efficient transportation modes, it is necessary to better understand the explanatory effects that transportation, population density, and policy variables have on passenger travel related CO₂ emissions. This study presents the development of a model of CO₂ emissions per capita as a function of various explanatory variables using data on 146 urbanized areas in the United States. The model takes into account selectivity bias resulting from the fact that adopting policies aimed at reducing emissions in an urbanized area may be partly driven by the presence of environmental concerns in that area. The results indicate that population density, transit share, freeway lane-miles per capita, private vehicle occupancy, and average travel time have a statistically significant explanatory effect on passenger travel related CO₂ emissions. In addition, the presence of automobile emissions inspection programs, which serves as a proxy indicator of other policies addressing environmental concerns and which could influence travelers in making environmentally favorable travel choices, markedly changes the manner in which transportation variables explain CO₂ emission levels.     

A vehicle type-based approach to model car following behaviors in simulation programs (case study: Car-motorcycle following behavior)

Traffic simulation models often neglect the important role of motorcycles and assume a flow of various combinations of cars. This paper addresses how much different would be the behavior of a car driver while following a motorcyclist compared to cases in which a car follows another car, along with a segment of an urban highway in the non-congested flow. Recognition of such a difference might help to develop existing simulation models and to improve the behavior of car drivers in such a way to lead to lower accidents with motorcycles. To reach the goal, a GHR (Gazis-Herman-Rothery) model for car following is applied and data have been collected by video cameras during 15?min time intervals in three different days. Analysis of 198 car-motorcycle and 374 car-car following observations has indicated that when a car driver follows a motorcycle, keeps a higher headway (about 10?m in the low speed) with a lower acceleration/deceleration in comparison with the situation in which car driver follow another one. It means that the behavior of the follower car driver would be more cautious compared to situations in which a car driver follows another one, especially in space headways <10?m. In addition to main findings of the paper for developing a more realistic simulation program, the paper also addresses that in cases when the required safe space between a car and a motorcycle would be endangered, a warning message could be generated for the car driver (by implementing an in-veh ITS technology) to warn driver about keeping a safe distance.